Wednesday, June 9, 2010

My Expansion Thoughts

I know some people are pretty burned out about the subject but it's time I let my opinion be known. The Big 10 has revealed that they are looking to expand within the next 4 or 5 years, mainly affecting football, which is what I will be touching on. This timeline has seemed to have been moved up with the reports that the Pac 10 was going to take 4-6, if not all 12, teams from the Big 12. Rumors have swirled about Nebraska joining the Big 10 for a while and now it seems more like a fact. There have been reports today that the Nebraska regents have agreed to join the Big 10. This would put the Big 10 at 12 teams (Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, and Northwestern). That would be enough teams to form two six team divisions and open the door for a conference football championship game. This championship game is what the expansion is all about. It will provide additional revenue for the conference (and the schools) and it will give the Big 10 more media exposure later into the year. The lack of exposure has hurt the Big 10's perception over the years and their bowl record hasn't been the greatest either. Let's say the Big 10 stops at 12 teams, the breakdown could look like this:
Eastern Division: Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana, Purdue
Western Division: Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern

The schedule would still follow the current guideline of four non-conference games and seven conference games. Each team would play the other teams from its division and two teams from the other division every year. This should provide ample opportunities to avoid ties within the division. The two division winners would then meet in the championship game with the winner getting the conference championship.

Now let's say the conference decides to expand to 16 teams (I don't see how 14 teams would work very well). The Big 10 has been going after Notre Dame for years and may finally land them if they want to expand past Nebraska (again assuming Nebraska is joining the conference). This will put the conference at 13 teams, needing three more to get to 16. Getting to 13 teams is the easy part, getting the next three may be difficult. No one knows for sure who else the Big 10 is looking at. Rutgers, Missouri, Georgia Tech, and Pitt all seem to be mentioned. Iowa State is making a push to be included so that they aren't left out of a BCS conference if the Big 12 implodes. The Big 10 seems to want to push more to the east and a little bit south east, explaining Rutgers (New York City area) and Georgia Tech (Atlanta). Missouri and Iowa State fit geographically but they wouldn't be great at generating additional revenue. For now I'm going to predict that Missouri, Rutgers, and Pitt are the final three schools added. My prediction for a 16 team conference breakdown would be 2 divisions, each with 2 subdivisions.
East Division:
East: Penn State, Pitt, Rutgers, Indiana
North: Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana
West Division:
South: Illinois, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Missouri
West: Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota

I know the North subdivision is loaded but I lined these up to help preserve rivalries. The schedule would still be four non-conference and seven conference games. The teams would still play the other teams in its subdivision and then one team from each other subdivision, putting them at six conference games. The seventh game would be between a team from the other subdivision in your division, based on record. For example, East #1 would play North #1 and South #4 would play West #4. The top teams in each subdivision would be playing for their division's spot in the conference championship. In essence this would give Big 10 schools a playoff into bowl season. Yes this could lead to multiple meetings between teams but that could still happen with only a championship game and it wouldn't be very likely.

Of course the actual expansion won't happen for a couple more years since the schedules are already out. It will give some time for build up between the schools that will become new rivals and the first season will be explosive. Now we need September 4 to get here soon so that we can once again see some football.

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