Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Roses May Look Nice But Oranges Taste Better

The 2009 Iowa football season is officially in the books. The end of the season is always a little depressing due to the length of the off season. The nice thing is that the 2010 off season is a few days shorter with Iowa playing in the Orange Bowl. The main goal for the team is always the Rose Bowl since that also means a Big 10 championship but the Orange Bowl is nothing to be sad about. A BCS bowl, a national stage, and the chance to shut the 'experts' up is an ideal situation. Heading into 2009 the Big 10 was being called overrated, slow, behind the times, and anything else they could dig up to bash the conference. This bowl season may have changed that. In 2009 the Big 10 only won 1 bowl game (Iowa in the Outback). Going into the Orange Bowl the Big 10 had 3 wins (Wisconsin in the Champs Sports, Penn St in the Capital One, and Ohio St in the Rose) and 3 losses. The ACC also had a 3-3 bowl record going into the Orange Bowl. Iowa winning the Orange Bowl would have given the Big 10 a winning bowl record with 2 of the wins being BCS games (only one other conference has a chance at that feat, the SEC). Each of the Big 10 wins came against higher ranked teams: #25 Wisconsin beat #15 Miami, #13 Penn St beat #12 LSU, #8 Ohio St beat #7 Oregon. Iowa was ranked #10 and Georgia Tech was ranked #9 going into the Orange Bowl. Would the trend continue?

The big thing heading into the Orange Bowl was Georgia Tech's 'explosive' offense, which averaged over 300 rushing yards and 35 points per game. How could Iowa's defense stop it? Anyone outside of the Big 10, and University of Arizona, didn't think Iowa could stop it. This game was a classic match up of strength (GT rushing offense) vs strength (Iowa defense). Most football purists know that a gimmick offense, such as the triple option, doesn't usually match up with a strong disciplined defense, such as Iowa's.

During the regular season Georgia Tech was very effective running the football since the opposing defense only had a few days to prepare for it. Unfortunately for Georgia Tech Iowa had a month to prepare, and Iowa's defensive coordinator (Norm Parker) has been around the game long enough to remember when the triple option was en vogue. The man knows how to stop it; give him a month and his players will be ready to stop it as well. It quickly became evident that the strong defense was going to have its way with the gimmick offense.

The Iowa defense showed early that they were going to be a force and Georgia Tech looked as if they knew it early on. GT was flagged for a false start on their first offensive snap. 4 plays later they launched their first punt in 22 possessions. GT could only manage 32 yards of total offense in the first half, and finished with 155 yards on the game (143 of those were on the ground). That was mainly due to the way Iowa's defensive line was playing. The tackles, Christian Ballard and Karl Klug, were very active with clogging the middle and the ends, Adrian Clayborn and Broderick Binns, did a good job of jumping to the dive play and then being able to get back outside if the play went there. The line also gave the linebackers a lot of opportunities to make plays, which they did. A good way to tell that the front seven did their job in stopping the run is to look at the tackle count for the defensive backs. Brett Greenwood and Shaun Prater led the way with 2 tackles each, Tyler Sash had 1 tackle, and Amari Spievey had none. That shows that the offense wasn't able to get to the next level as they hope to. As a former safety I know that it's usually a bad thing if a safety has to make a tackle. More often than not it means the play has gained some decent yardage, however that's not always the case. The big player was definitely Clayborn, who finished with 9 tackles and 2 sacks. It seemed that GT was running at him all game. The only reason I can think of to do that is to wear him down, but they must not realize how good of a conditioning program Iowa has in place. There is a reason that Clayborn was named the game MVP. I'm very happy he has already decided to come back to Iowa for his senior season.

The match up that wasn't being talked about as much was the Iowa rushing offense against the GT rushing defense. GT had given up over 300 rushing yards in their last two games. It looks like the month of preparation helped GT in this area as they held Iowa to 172 yards on 40 carries (4.3 yards per carry). The big impact was in the Iowa passing game. Ricky Stanzi returned from a sprained ankle and went 17-29 for 231 yards, 2 TDs, and the normal pick-6. Stanzi ended up throwing a pick-6 in 4 games this year but Iowa went 4-0 in those games. Before the game I predicted that Brandon Wegher would break a big TD run and win MVP honors. I got half of that one right; Wegher finished with 113 yards on 16 carries (7.1 ypc) and a 32 yard TD run that sealed the deal. The offensive stars were the offensive linemen. Through bowl practice it was reported that Reilly Reiff had been moved to right tackle and Kyle Calloway was being moved to right guard. The move did happen and worked perfectly. Stanzi got sacked twice but those were on overload blitzes (2 or 3 extra defenders were sent). Bryan Bulaga and Reiff had their way with GT's All-American defensive end Derrick Morgan all night long. Morgan (who came in with 12.5 sacks) ended with 3 tackles (including .5 for loss) and 0 sacks. He was taken out of the play multiple times by both Bulaga and Reiff. This was a classic Iowa offensive showing: bully the defense with the line, control the ball and clock, and score just enough to win. Stanzi did take some deep shots but he didn't look as sharp on the deep balls as earlier in the season. Trey Stross deserves some special recognition for playing with a torn MCL in his right knee. He had 1 catch for 9 yards but that came on a 3rd and 8 late in the game. I've been a fan of Stross and was glad to see he got some game time in his final college game.

Now Iowa will get into reload mode. Key players will be graduating: AJ Edds, Pat Angerer, Tony Moeaki, Stross, Rafael Eubanks, Calloway, and Dace Richardson. In addition Bulaga and Spievey may enter the NFL draft and play on Sundays next fall. The position breakdown for those losses are 2 LB, 4 OL, WR, TE, and CB. Luckily all of those positions are fairly deep and the replacements will be more than capable of taking over. Next year's schedule should be very favorable. The tough road games in 2009 are now at home (Iowa St, Wisconsin, Penn St, Michigan St, and Ohio St). The tough home game is at a home-away-from-home (Northwestern). Another double-digit win season is easily reachable and should be expected. If I were to give a prediction right now I would say that Iowa is easily a Big 10 championship contender, if not the favorite.

Another prediction I have been floating around is where Iowa will play their bowl game after next season: it will be either the Fiesta Bowl or the BCS Title Game. My prediction is based off of the returning players and some of the past few seasons. In 2009 Iowa played in Tampa, FL on the same field as the 2009 Super Bowl. In 2010 Iowa played in Miami, FL on the same field as the 2010 Super Bowl. The 2011 Super Bowl will be held at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ, site of the Fiesta Bowl and the 2011 BCS Title Game.

I'm proud to be part of the Hawkeye Nation! Now if Iowa could only figure out how to play men's basketball.....